Recap and Forward
It has been 4-5 months since I began writing here, and I still haven’t issued a formal “buy” recommendation. That’s deliberate. Since April, I haven’t seen compelling value opportunities that meet our standards. The market has run up, and when prices are high, true value becomes harder to find. As value investors, we keep our heads cool — we invest in value, not story, not price, not hype.
We don’t buy simply because the market is moving higher. In fact, that is often when discipline matters most. After the market has climbed, it becomes much harder to find stocks that check all three boxes — a great business model, a good business culture, and a good price — while still giving us a meaningful margin of safety. Until we see that combination, we will wait. Patience is part of the strategy, and we will never lower our standards when it comes to that.
Now, let’s look back at the names I highlighted in the past. We’ll recap each recommendation, compare the original price to where it trades today (all current prices are as of September 15, 2025), and discuss what that implies going forward.
Nike (NKE)
Then: $63.35 (3/21/25)
Now: $73.00 (9/15/25)
Return: +15% in under 6 monthsNike delivered steady upside since entry. We initially bought this as a defensive play — a fortress brand with predictable cash flows. Looking forward, I remain very, very, very bullish. At today’s levels, Nike is still a solid buy. The company’s direct-to-consumer push, global dominance, and brand moat make this one of the most attractive blue chips in the portfolio.
AMD
Then: $95.12 (3/11/25)
Now: $161.58 (9/15/25)
Return: +70% in just over 6 monthsAMD exploded higher, riding AI, GPU, and data center demand. At this valuation, I now call it a hold. The easy gains have been captured, and the stock is no longer cheap. Still, AMD is a very solid business with long-term growth tailwinds — a strong compounder, but upside from here depends on flawless execution.
Celsius Holdings (CELH)
Then: $21.22 (2/12/25)
Now: $56.07 (9/15/25)
Return: +165% in 7 monthsCELH has been a rocket ship, more than doubling since entry. At this point, it becomes a hold. Forward P/E looks stretched, but the fundamentals remain excellent. With no true competitor in the healthy energy drink niche and dominant shelf space, Celsius is still a juggernaut. Just recognize buyers today are paying a steep premium.
Lemonade (LMND)
Then: $18.13 (10/4/24)
Now: $56.70 (9/15/25)
Return: +213% in less than a yearLMND has tripled since my recommendation. Due to valuation, I now move it to a hold. That said, the long-term story is intact. Lemonade’s AI-driven underwriting gives it a disruptive edge in insurance. Profitability is steadily improving, and this could be the future of the industry. For long-term investors, it remains a name to watch closely.
Estée Lauder (EL)
Then: $48.46 (4/07/25)
Now: $87.40 (9/15/25)
Return: +80% in 5 monthsEL has nearly doubled in just a few months. Despite the rally, I still rate it a buy. The Chinese market recovery and restructuring efforts could spark a major EPS rebound, and the market may still be underestimating this potential. Estée Lauder’s global brands and pricing power make it one of the best-positioned consumer discretionary names for the next cycle. In my view, it’s still a steal.
Recap
Every single highlighted stock generated strong returns: Nike +15%, AMD +70%, Celsius +165%, Lemonade +213%, Estée Lauder +80%. These results underscore the power of buying quality businesses at the right time — not chasing hype, but waiting for the margin of safety.
Looking forward, CELH and LMND shift to holds due to stretched valuations, AMD is also a hold after its huge run, while Nike and Estée Lauder remain conviction buys. Patience and discipline created these gains — and they will again when the next wave of opportunities appears.
As we move forward, the coming quarters may look even more challenging and uncertain — with stretched valuations, persistent inflationary pressures, shifting consumer demand, and a market that rewards hype one day and punishes it the next. But none of that changes our playbook. All we need to do is keep our heads cool, stay patient, and remember that in investing, fast is slow, and slow is fast. Opportunities will come — and when they do, value investors who wait with discipline will be ready.
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